Jumat, 11 April 2008

Japanese Candlesticks Are Not a Gimmick

In the celebrated Broadway show "Gypsy," several showgirl characters have developed unique approaches to their art which sets them apart from the others. One, called "Electra" as I recall, bedecks herself with a set of flashing lights. Another, whose name I do not presently recall, sports a trumpet (yes, a trumpet, which she plays badly) and announced, in song, that "You Gotta Have a Gimmick."

Even today, after having been introduced to the Western markets about 25 years ago, there is an undercurrent of disdain for the Japanese Candlesticks style of financial price presentation. This is unfortunate, because the candles portray the underlying psychology of the markets better than anything else that has been devised. It is rather dismaying to see the practitioners or other disciplines still resisting using the candles, because to do so would enhance the accuracy of their market forecasts, especially in the very short term.

What is it about the Candles that makes them so special? Are they just a gimmick, a passing fad? I think that's demonstrably not so. They have an uncanny ability to spot reversals of major trend, as they are happening or about to happen.

There's nothing mysterious about them. It's just a matter of personal education to take the time and make the small effort to learn the basics. Instructional materials are widely available, both in printed form and in CD's or DVD's. In addition, two of the leading lights in the specialty conduct seminars on the subject, both in person and over the Web. It's a matter of personal preference which works better.

What are the Candles, anyway? It's simple. Whereas the "old" method of price presentation shows the open, high, low, and close in the form of a line with little twigs on the sides to indicate the open and the close, the Candles expand the line to cylindrical form. Basically, if the cylinder is left hollow, that represents an "up" day; if the cylinder is filled in, that represents a "down" day. When the Candles are put to use during the trading day, either in streaming data or frequently-refreshed data, it is easy to see the shifts in market psychology, even minute by minute. It is quite a revelation to see this phenomenon in action.

Traders and investors who have learned the candles would never go back to the "old way," because that method leaves out so much valuable information. Once you learn the Candles, the skill never leaves you. It's like riding a two-wheeled bicycle. Once you learn how to do it, the learning is done. Even though you may not have ridden a bike for years and years, when the opportunity arises you find that the skill is still there. How refreshing it is to be challenged on the point when you are "past your prime," and you prove that the ability has never gone away.

If nothing else, every investor should learn the candles purely as an educational and intellectual exercise to prove that your mind is still young.

The author owns CandleWave, LLC, which publishes an investment advisory newsletter at http://www.candlewave.com/ He is a retired attorney and corporate CEO, has passed the NASD Series 65 Investment Adviser exam, and has Florida licenses in real estate and in community association management.



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